Gay Marriage in Missouri

Thatcoloredfella, in a comment on my previous entry, Missouri Gay Marriage Issue on August Ballot - Good for the World, asks a series of good questions: Other than reason you stated, are there any other benefits to Kerry and the Dems, by keeping this off the November ballot?

How do you think the campaign on this will shape up? What groups will emerge as prominent adversaries? Will money be spent? How? TV, radio, mailings...push polling?

How will the major state political players (both parties) be involved? Is the result a far gone conclusion? What side will the major papers take?

Wow, Thatcoloredfella, you expect real analysis from me? Fair enough, I suppose.

The main reason it is good that the issue will be on the August ballot is the one I stated - it is less likely to skew the November election. It is my belief that Missourians are likely to vote in favor of the amendment - my guess would be 60-40. That's just a guess, though, and it is possible that the vote could go differently. A recent unscientific poll in traditionally conservative Springfield showed that 50% opposed the amendment.

Let's face it - the average Missourian is queasy with the idea of gay marriage. By having the vote in August, though, it is possible that a huge GOTV effort by the pro-gay-marriage people could counteract what will probably be a huge GOTV effort by the less-enlightened churches and by the out-and-out homophobes.

I'm not sure how the money plays out in this campaign. The gay rights crowd has PROMO out front, but I doubt that PROMO can out-grassroots the thousands of conservative churches sprinkled through Missouri. Perhaps some enlightened individuals and organizations from outside Missouri will funnel dollars to PROMO and other organizations, but I'm not sure they'll raise enough for serious media buys.

The anti-gay people are already hard at work. I drove through mid-Missouri this weekend, and listened to AM radio. In the midst of a religious broadcast, I heard a commercial from some guy who claims to be formerly gay, and is now a proud father of one with another on the way. He claimed that he turned away from the gay "lifestyle" and that if he had been allowed to get married to a gay man, as he wanted, his life would have been ruined, but the protecting hand of the law saved him from such an awful fate. So, yeah, there will be some radio efforts on the anti-gay side, but I doubt they will gather enough money to really do much media outside of the religious broadcasters where, presumably, they will be preaching to the converted and the rare masochistic liberal riding through corn country.

While both democratic candidates for governor oppose the amendment, neither will choose to make it a central point of their candidacy. The Republicans will probably try to make it an issue, but that's another advantage of getting the vote over with in August - it will be decided before the campaign stretch starts.

I expect the St. Louis Post Dispatch and the Kansas City Star to come out against the amendment, but I don't expect any other major papers to support gay rights.

As I said at the start, I am pessimistic about the chances of defeating this amendment, but Missouri voters have surprised me before. In 1999, I expected the state to pass a "concealed carry" amendment, but the voters rejected it 52-48, despite the gun lobby outspending the good guys by a margin of 4:1.

It is possible, just possible, that the majority of voters in August will refuse to enshrine discrimination in the Missouri Constitution, but, if I were forced to bet my house on the outcome, I'd say that the religious right will have its way.