Snap Polls Stop Talking Heads

I have something good to say about polls this morning.

Normally, I dislike polls and poll-watching. Tracking Gallup and Rasmussen is like watching the scoreboard at a football game, instead of the action in front of you. Worse, it's like watching multiple scoreboards at a game, with each scoreboard purporting to report on the same action, but each reporting different scores. They swagger into the room full of concrete factuality and then change shape overnight. They are untrustworthy and distracting.

But polls are not half as untrustworthy and distracting as post-debate spinmeisters on television. Nothing on earth could shake these determined partisans from declaring their favored candidate as the winner. If one candidate had soiled himself and admitted that he tortures kittens, these scurrilous asses would soberly intone that it was a great moment, and that it was a brilliant outreach to American dog lovers. The first 15 minutes of coverage after a debate are a stomach-churning display of lying scumbags willing to say absolutely anything to make it seem like their candidate won.

Snap polls, though, are changing the role of post-debate spin, and that's a good thing. In past years, the partisans who spoke loudest and most enthusiastically in the locker rooms were declared the winners. 8 short years ago, Gore was declared the loser of a debate that surveys showed he had won, all because the Republican spinmeisters did a masterful job of arguing that the American people were more concerned with sighs than substance. The day of the snap poll, with results charting average voters' instant reactions to the debate available within minutes of the debate's close, had not yet arrived.

Snap polls are the silver lining to the cloud of election polls. They actually stand for something, because they measure a real reaction to a real phenomenon. Election polls, on the other hand, are pitched differently - they are presented as a preview of the final election, when, in fact, they are snapshots of a single moment.

In the face of a snap poll, talking heads are reined in. It doesn't do any good to claim that my candidate dominated the debate if we're going to hear a few minutes later that the polls reflect the opposite. During those 15 or so minutes, the spinmeisters are exposed as what they truly are - shills filling time.

Sadly, the shills don't even seem to realize how marginalized they are, and how out-of-step they are with America. Nothing I could dream up to illustrate my point could rival this reaction posted on the National Review's website last night, by somebody who is actually paid for her opinions:

"I Just Don't Get
any of the insta polls, which seem to give it to Obama."

Indeed you don't Kathryn, and indeed they do.

Can Kinder/Page Poll Become Meaningful?

Sam Page is, as I've written several times before, a new kind of candidate for Missouri Lieutenant Governor. Unbeknownst to most of us, the Lieutenant Governor position has real duties, and many of those duties would be better served with an experienced physician fulfilling them. Who would you rather have working on affordable prescriptions for seniors - a do-nothing political hack or a bright, sincere young doctor with a passion for public service? It's kind of like having Dr. Carter from ER running against Mayor Quimby from The Simpsons. The choice is clear.

Missouri appears ready to choose Dr. Page. A recent poll shows that Sam Page, in a race against an incumbent Republican, has jumped out to a slim lead, despite being heavily outspent by an entrenched Republican with better name recognition.

The key to understanding the poll, though, is not in focusing on Sam Page's surprising 38/37 lead. The key is in paying attention to the 23% who are undecided. That is where the race will be decided, and money will be absolutely critical in helping those people make the right decision. If you want to invest in a statewide campaign where your dollars will make the biggest difference in chasing a scandal-racked Rove Republican from office, PLEASE visit this page and make as large a donation as you can afford.

It would be a shame if this encouraging poll turned out to be a false positive . . .

The Sermon Saga - Why I Fear Disillusionment with Obama

Let's get one thing clear up front - I am 100% behind the Democratic nominee for President, be it Clinton or Obama. I believe either will be an effective president, and can begin the process of rebuilding our country's standing domestically and internationally after the debacle of the past 7 3/4 years. I lean toward Clinton, but that is solely because of my opinion that she is the more likely to win the general election.

The past week demonstrates that Obama's support is like a cumulus cloud - impressive to see, but vaporous in nature.

It all started with reports about his pastor and "spiritual advisor" of his campaign spouting off with racially charged negativity more fitting on a joke blog than on a pulpit. Obama fumbled his first responses to the criticism, and it blossomed into a full-blown media event, complete with incendiary video and hand-wringing right-wingers shocked, simply shocked, that a black man could find something to criticize in this enlightened land.

It was all so stupid and manufactured. Republicans get in bed with people who claim God launched Katrina as a terrorist attack on us, and nobody raises an eyebrow. But if a loud, scary black preacher says something to provoke some thought and wake up the back pews, we have ourselves a genuine crisis.

But, sadly enough, it's working. For the first time in a month, Clinton has a statistically significant lead over Obama in national polls. Closer to home, the flap has caused Obama's margin of loss to McCain to mushroom from 6% to 14%.

The point is that when we are able to look at Obama as a fresh-faced, energetic symbol of our hopes and dreams for a new America, he's a winner. But when he turns out to be a real person with crazy friends and questionable decisions, his support dissipates rapidly. If people are supporting Obama because of an illusion that he will single-handedly transform us into a united, peace-loving, tolerant nation, I can assure you that the Republicans will supply us with plenty of DISillusion before November.

If a little videotape of a preacher caused an 8% swing in Obama's performance in Missouri, what will be left after Karl Rove gets finished with him?

And what will that do to the Democratic party's gains in Missouri?

Jacking with the Pollsters

I've received a bunch of calls lately from political pollsters, mostly from the Republican side. While it would be easy to explain to them that I will not be voting in the Republican primary on Tuesday, or to simply hang up, I would be missing out on a real opportunity to confuse the issues for the "experts" on the Republican side.

Somewhere, the Republican strategists are pondering why a strong Huckabee supporter is also strongly pro-gay marriage. Why is a portion of the "leaning Romney" electorate mostly concerned with Second Amendment rights? And McCain is apparently the choice of those who want immediate deportation of all undocumented immigrants.

Republican pollsters are welcome to call me anytime they want, and I promise to answer their questions.