Tuesday, July 15, 2008

AG Race - Harris on Top!

Only fools take polls very seriously, but I'm foolish enough to be blown away by AG candidate Jeff Harris' showing in the recent poll released by the St. Louis Post Dispatch. Jeff Harris is leading by double digits over Chris Koster and Margaret Donnelly!

A few cautionary words are in order - this poll was done before the TV blitz, which has begun and will continue. Chris Koster's republican donors and third party committees - 81% of his war chest - have made it possible for him to interrupt our television viewing more often than Katie Horner in a rainsuit. Second, the survey shows 23% undecided, which means that a lot of people could be influenced by those ads. (Theoretically, though, it also means that Molly Korth Williams could build upon her base of 1% and defeat Koster 24-23. Go Molly!!)

On the plus side of the unknowns, though, the undecideds and some of Donnelly's support may tilt toward Harris, since most democrats are unlikely to support a candidate who endorsed John Ashcroft, campaigned against Governor Mel Carnahan, and helped kick hundreds of thousands of Missourians out of health coverage.

The poll also does not reflect the impact of Jeff Harris' television advertising, which will probably be less widespread yet more effective than Koster's. It's easier to sell a Democrat to Democrats than it is to sell an Ashcroft Republican.

Another reason to suggest that the poll may under-represent Harris' advantage is that the news continues to break on Koster's shady campaigning. Now, we've learned that he has a pending ethics complaint to worry about, based on his money-laundering tactics. Things are crumbling for Mr. Koster.

All told, it's just a poll, and those who want to see a real Democrat in the AG's office cannot mistake a road sign for the destination. Until Jeff Harris wins on August 5 and on November 4, this race is up in the air. Indeed, now would be a great time to go to ActBlue and make a donation for Jeff Harris, to make sure that he does not get outgunned by Koster's republican buddies.

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9 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

The thing I couldn't ever stand about Koster was the double standard.

He pretended not to plea bargain when he was Cass County Prosecutor...and yet all the lawyers knew that there were "certain people" getting "things handled".

Who does he think he is kiddin?

7/15/2008 8:07 AM  
Anonymous the nitwit said...

Yeah, and the highest profile case he handled, John Robinson, he pled out. How can he even make that claim?

Is there anything that Koster isn't a phony about?

Great news for Harris, and a great bit of analysis, Dan. The race is still up in the air, and anyone who wants to make sure we elect a Democrat attorney general needs to get on board the Harris train immediately.

Donnelly's a great lady, and I respect her, but she's not going to win this thing. Harris even leads her in St. Louis and among women. The choice is simple. Harris is the best candidate to beat Koster and Gibbons.

7/15/2008 8:55 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I had to deal with Koster this year in the legislature. He comes across as slick and insincere.

I wouldn't vote for him.

7/15/2008 11:13 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anon i'm not voting koster but if you were in the legislature i wouldn't vote for you either! you guys have sucked it up for like 6 years.

7/15/2008 6:06 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Did anyone here see Harris' latest fundraising report? Pathetic. Dont beleive the spin or the Post Dispatch Poll. Harris finishes 3rd. Book it.

7/15/2008 8:41 PM  
Blogger Dan said...

You're the same guy who was making those same "Koster is inevitable" claims earlier in the race. Sorry, buddy, nobody believes you anymore. If you really believe what you're saying, email me and let's set up a bet. I would love to see Harris win the race and me win the money.

7/15/2008 9:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Who does Beth endorse?

7/15/2008 9:06 PM  
Blogger Dan said...

As far as I know, Beth Gottstein (I assume that's the Beth to whom you refer) has not endorsed any of the candidates.

7/15/2008 9:30 PM  
Blogger sophia said...

If I'd known that anonymous was more trustworthy with poll numbers than the Post-Dispatch, I would've voted for Donnelly and convinced my friends to do the same. Watching the returns last night, I was surprised to see that the guy anonymously posting numbers all summer showing Harris in third near 20% was right.

I'm pretty pissed right now. I want to know if Harris did any internal polling. If he knew he was in this bad of a position he should have dropped out and endorsed Donnelly. It's not like he can pretend he didn't notice there was a republican running in the democratic primary.

8/06/2008 3:26 PM  

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